http://www.spyns.com/
Few things are certain these days but I am sure of the following:
- Spyns offers the best Tour de France tours;
- The sun will rise tomorrow;
- Contador will lose his doping appeal (and won't compete in the 2011 Tour de France); and
- The Eurozone (and larger world) crisis are far from over.
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| "I'll have the irony please." |
To wit: Ireland's bailout was inked just 5 weeks ago and has yet to be formally ratified in that country's parliament. Adding to the uncertainty, the Irish government has collapsed and the leading opposition party likely to form the next government has started making noises about bond haircuts. [They were summarily slapped down by both the ECB and European Commission: both defenders of German and French banks that own the bonds.] Portugal's economy is shrinking while bond interest rates remain stubbornly high. This is an unsustainable path for that country. Belgium has no government and is likely heading for a break up. Both inflation and unemployment are on the rise across Europe, most acutely in France, Great Britain, and Spain. So sounding the "all clear" may be a bit premature. The instability at Europe's doorstep is also a bit foreboding.
Politicians don't normally deal in bad news. Some have even been known to lie. I'd look at what's happening in North African countries like Egypt and Tunisia to see how quickly things can degerate when you have an explosive mix of high youth unemployment, skyrocketing cost of living, and governments that fail to address either. Turning to the Eurozone, these factors are common in Spain, the UK and France to name a few. While everyone is having a Chamberlain moment in Davos (the man who claimed "Peace in our time" just before the outbreak of WWII), I believe Western governments are dealing with symptoms rather than treating the illness.
While governments in Spain and the US artificially prop up housing prices, lowball unemployment, and continue with bank bailouts, soverign debt keeps growing at an alarming rate and shows few signs of abating. The US deficit is projected to be a staggering $1.5 trillion in 2011. It makes little sense for the US government to extend tax cuts under these circumstances. Sadly, governments on both sides of the Atlantic look no further than the next election when addressing problems that will take generations to resolve. Will this come to a head in 2011? Your guess is as good as mine.
I equate the current financial situation to a melting iceberg. Lehman's collapse was the fracture setting developed economies adrift. The resulting iceberg moved inexorably towards warmer waters and started melting - almost imperceptibly. The politicians are like penguins darting here and there around the massive surface, giving the impression of frenetic activity yet doing little to change the iceberg's trajectory. Once adrift, it is almost impossible to change the course of an iceberg. Similarly, it will take decades to repair the developed world's finances yet the political will is missing.
What does this mean for Spyns 2011 Tour de France clients? In the short term, I'd expect Spain's financial problems to become front page news again in the next 8-10 weeks. This will probably lead to a dip in the euro before the US budget crisis also makes headlines - likely when a large US city or state goes bankrupt. So Spyns clients should probably exchange their dollars to euros during the next dip as the euro will likely spike again in June/July 2011.
Spyns is an active travel company based in Whister, BC (Canada) and Beaujolais France. Spyns specializes in 2011 Tour de France packages for both riders and non-riders. We specialize in providing clients with Tour de France bike and non-biking packages with Paris grandstand seats and VIP access. Spyns offers active holidays to Europe including trips to the 2011 Tour de France. For more information about Spyns 2011 Tour de France tours, please go to http://www.tdf-tours.com/ or http://www.spyns.com/. You can also call us toll-free at 1.888.825.4720.
